SantaKlausSkeptic
0x50451d09e4f8f39a11d1f022a58ec4e60f3d4b5b
- Realised P&L
- $-735.34
- Volume
- $50.3k
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $13.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$192.25at 0.230Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?
- +$97.80at 0.153US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$52.50at 0.40049ers vs. Eagles
- +$37.13at 0.230Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$36.29at 0.140US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 17:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 02-10 15:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET | BUY | 0.03 | $6.00 |
| 02-10 15:24 | US x China Military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $7.55 |
| 02-10 15:14 | US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.013 | $10.00 |
| 02-10 15:07 | Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? | SELL | 0.013 | $10.05 |
| 01-28 19:14 | Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? | BUY | 0.0517521072 | $40.00 |
| 01-28 13:37 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $40.00 |
| 01-26 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $50.89 |
| 01-26 06:48 | US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $60.00 |
| 01-26 06:47 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999966 | $40.00 |
| 01-26 06:47 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.7262077429 | $200.00 |
| 01-26 06:45 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.2634185112 | $123.29 |
| 01-25 09:56 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.1113674547 | $55.68 |
| 01-24 03:39 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $6.71 |
| 01-24 02:04 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.2922621757 | $154.10 |