PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x5044C3252890F5165d832341552e31dEf16929a9-1761104857085

0x5044c3252890f5165d832341552e31def16929a9

Realised P&L
$-309.29
Volume
$8.2k
Markets traded
51
Open portfolio
$27.73

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded51
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration47.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample25 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? · Yes0.1600.148$9.25$0.75
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.1300.115$8.85$1.15
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? · Yes0.0440.043$4.94$0.06
Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference? · Yes0.0800.075$4.69$0.31
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00$3.00
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13? · Yes0.1190.000$0.00$5.00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? · Yes0.2400.000$0.00$15.00
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? · Yes0.3300.000$0.00$20.00
US government shutdown Saturday? · No0.2500.000$0.00$100.00
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? · Yes0.4900.000$0.00$10.00
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? · Yes0.0330.000$0.00$5.00
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00$10.00
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00$20.00
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$5.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 22:32Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?BUY0.0439999999$5.00
09-14 22:32Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?BUY0.16$10.00
09-14 22:30Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference?BUY0.08$5.00
09-14 22:28Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.1299999999$10.00
09-14 22:28Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?SELL0.9249768977$92.49
05-04 11:00Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ETSELL0.99$24.75
05-04 10:57Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ETBUY0.2$5.00
05-04 10:55Iran closes its airspace by May 31?BUY0.4899999814$10.00
05-04 10:55Iran closes its airspace by May 8?BUY0.189999988$10.00
05-04 10:55Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?BUY0.5599999978$30.00
05-04 10:52AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?SELL0.059$0.73
05-04 10:50Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?SELL0.13$50.42
02-09 17:56Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?BUY0.1187572394$5.00
02-09 17:55US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?BUY0.1099999913$10.00
02-09 17:55US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?BUY0.0379999965$10.00