deprecated-user
0x5037e7285bbdbaa095ae132ec1c95391cd4b38f4
- Realised P&L
- $10.1k
- Volume
- $89.1k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $103.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.051 | $103.00 | −$8.85 |
| Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$460.56 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$153.99 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? · No | 0.236 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$922.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.3kat 0.488Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election?
- +$5.1kat 0.366Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$735.39at 0.671Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
- +$453.29at 0.459Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
- +$220.56at 0.537Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 03:31 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.318 | $28.30 |
| 09-25 13:35 | Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $71.15 |
| 09-21 22:26 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $240.00 |
| 09-21 22:24 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05757232 | $57.57 |
| 09-21 22:23 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $240.00 |
| 09-21 22:21 | Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7039160997 | $280.39 |
| 09-21 22:20 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.69 | $413.99 |
| 09-19 21:12 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.25888 | $129.44 |
| 09-19 21:10 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.65 | $65.00 |
| 09-19 20:56 | Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $138.00 |
| 09-19 20:55 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0548609556 | $49.37 |
| 09-19 20:54 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.65 | $325.00 |
| 09-19 20:21 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.65 | $195.00 |
| 09-19 20:18 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $96.00 |
| 09-19 20:18 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | SELL | 0.89 | $89.00 |