0x5032d0E6cDC74bf38C7750857b2659379ACCF4A3-1729148213177
0x5032d0e6cdc74bf38c7750857b2659379accf4a3
- Realised P&L
- $4.06
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $32.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.630 | $32.81 | −$6.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.74at 0.330Will Medline's market cap be between $45B and $55B at market close on IPO day?
- +$13.41at 0.410S&P 500 all time high by December 31?
- +$9.47at 0.180Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
- +$3.88at 0.149SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
- +$2.92at 0.912Will Ed FitzGerald be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 15:56 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat? | BUY | 0.7599999962 | $39.58 |
| 09-04 08:42 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.9530580188 | $37.79 |
| 08-19 06:35 | Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? | BUY | 0.92 | $34.86 |
| 07-29 07:03 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9454677466 | $33.44 |
| 04-28 08:02 | Will Ed FitzGerald be the Democratic nominee for OH-07? | BUY | 0.912 | $30.28 |
| 04-16 06:46 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 13-19? | BUY | 0.9819999999 | $20.39 |
| 04-09 09:11 | Will André Maestrini be the next CEO of Lululemon? | SELL | 0.203 | $1.10 |
| 03-17 07:27 | Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9939999997 | $14.45 |
| 03-03 12:31 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $6.22 |
| 02-27 06:14 | Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? | SELL | 0.0124511224 | $0.17 |
| 02-06 02:19 | Will Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon? | SELL | 0.712 | $8.07 |
| 02-04 13:07 | Will Venezuela become 51st state? | SELL | 0.973 | $5.22 |
| 02-04 13:06 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.23 |
| 02-04 13:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $9.52 |
| 02-04 13:06 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $9.65 |