Alphie
0x501fd2c63c8ed110fbac12ee6f285550a007f746
- Realised P&L
- $-13.5k
- Volume
- $773.3k
- Markets traded
- 394
- Open portfolio
- $41.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded394
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.354Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?
- +$838.95at 0.012Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?
- +$620.00at 0.380Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
- +$551.24at 0.578Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election?
- +$420.40at 0.591Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 05:00 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%? | BUY | 0.4925453265 | $40.00 |
| 10-20 04:59 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? | BUY | 0.1971443639 | $20.00 |
| 10-20 04:58 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? | BUY | 0.1881188109 | $10.00 |
| 10-20 04:57 | Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum? | BUY | 0.0245904998 | $10.00 |
| 10-20 04:07 | Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.0659448815 | $5.00 |
| 10-20 04:07 | Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.809999997 | $40.00 |
| 10-20 04:05 | Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $10.00 |
| 10-20 04:03 | Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5259188591 | $10.00 |
| 10-20 04:02 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.755999994 | $30.00 |
| 10-20 04:01 | Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 3.5 and 3.9% in 2026? | BUY | 0.0092081879 | $5.00 |
| 10-20 03:57 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? | BUY | 0.2435168319 | $50.00 |
| 10-20 03:54 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? | BUY | 0.1857993553 | $20.00 |
| 10-20 03:52 | Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum? | BUY | 0.0259465254 | $21.00 |
| 10-20 03:34 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? | BUY | 0.2189054711 | $20.00 |
| 10-20 03:33 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%? | BUY | 0.3317073151 | $20.00 |