marketp
0x4fd8082eac8aed928f3c7dd203a09569123e0d38
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $229.1k
- Markets traded
- 752
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded752
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.750US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$364.92at 0.680US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
- +$364.00at 0.753US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
- +$324.69at 0.821Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
- +$189.44at 0.749US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:36 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.29 | $29.00 |
| 10-31 23:01 | Will Como 1907 win on 2026-11-01? | BUY | 0.76 | $38.00 |
| 10-31 21:10 | Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03? | BUY | 0.35 | $17.50 |
| 10-31 20:02 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5 | BUY | 0.52 | $26.00 |
| 10-31 18:35 | Will EC Vitória win on 2026-10-29? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 10-31 18:34 | Will San Diego FC win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.21 | $10.50 |
| 10-31 18:34 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-11-03? | BUY | 0.46 | $23.00 |
| 10-31 17:19 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.59 | $29.50 |
| 10-31 16:39 | Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.55 | $27.50 |
| 10-31 16:14 | FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.35 | $17.50 |
| 10-31 14:30 | Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.54 | $27.00 |
| 10-31 14:29 | Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.56 | $28.00 |
| 10-31 14:28 | Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.3560439529 | $18.00 |
| 10-31 14:20 | Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.37 | $18.50 |
| 10-31 12:52 | Will SC Braga win on 2026-11-01? | BUY | 0.55 | $27.50 |