marketp
0x4fd8082eac8aed928f3c7dd203a09569123e0d38
- Realised P&L
- $693.02
- Volume
- $180.6k
- Markets traded
- 289
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded289
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.750US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$364.92at 0.680US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
- +$364.00at 0.753US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
- +$324.69at 0.821Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
- +$189.44at 0.749US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 03:35 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.977 | $29.21 |
| 09-16 07:45 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.988804878 | $202.70 |
| 09-15 23:52 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.021 | $1.36 |
| 09-15 23:27 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $59.78 |
| 09-15 12:22 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $200.91 |
| 09-15 12:21 | Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $298.65 |
| 09-15 09:09 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $8.75 |
| 09-15 09:08 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $42.50 |
| 09-15 09:07 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $9.06 |
| 09-15 08:34 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $59.50 |
| 09-14 17:03 | Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $231.14 |
| 09-14 01:49 | Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $39.51 |
| 09-14 01:49 | Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $43.90 |
| 09-14 00:15 | Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.981 | $11.64 |
| 09-14 00:14 | Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.988 | $20.16 |