PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

marketp

0x4fd8082eac8aed928f3c7dd203a09569123e0d38

Realised P&L
$693.02
Volume
$180.6k
Markets traded
289
Open portfolio
$3.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded289
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · Yes0.9590.982$635.06+$14.70
Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections? · Yes0.9480.974$449.01+$12.20
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? · Yes0.5500.590$320.37+$21.72
Will United Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections? · Yes0.9390.968$234.43+$7.00
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No0.9230.960$225.48+$8.62
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? · Yes0.3700.395$214.49+$13.58
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · Yes0.4100.195$195.00$215.00
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes0.9620.963$192.50+$0.10
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes0.9650.956$191.20$1.80
Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.9890.983$172.04$1.10
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · No0.7700.945$141.75+$26.25
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? · No0.9560.989$98.90+$3.30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No0.9000.992$95.37+$8.80
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.8500.925$92.50+$7.50
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? · Yes0.9590.989$88.97+$2.69

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 03:35Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?SELL0.977$29.21
09-16 07:45Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?BUY0.988804878$202.70
09-15 23:52Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?SELL0.021$1.36
09-15 23:27Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026?BUY0.98$59.78
09-15 12:22Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?BUY0.37$200.91
09-15 12:21Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?BUY0.55$298.65
09-15 09:09Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?BUY0.25$8.75
09-15 09:08Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.85$42.50
09-15 09:07Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.84$9.06
09-15 08:34Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.85$59.50
09-14 17:03Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by October 31, 2026?BUY0.99$231.14
09-14 01:49Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by October 31, 2026?BUY0.988$39.51
09-14 01:49Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by October 31, 2026?BUY0.98$43.90
09-14 00:15Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes?BUY0.981$11.64
09-14 00:14Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?BUY0.988$20.16