creke
0x4fd4611fea5f3893d1d90c7c94db5dd18775191f
- Realised P&L
- $47.22
- Volume
- $2.8k
- Markets traded
- 158
- Open portfolio
- $3.02
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded158
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.095 | $1.33 | −$1.19 |
| Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.080 | $0.88 | −$0.11 |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? · No | 0.790 | 0.640 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.53 |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: Switzerland O/U 0.5 · Over | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.78at 0.190Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$7.05at 0.266Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?
- +$7.05at 0.266Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?
- +$6.43at 0.286Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?
- +$6.26at 0.245Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 07:26 | Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 11:57 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 07-18 12:02 | France vs. England: France O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 12:02 | France vs. England: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 10:43 | England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.5199998613 | $1.20 |
| 07-14 17:42 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5699998784 | $1.50 |
| 07-11 07:40 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 07:12 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6449999903 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 15:09 | France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.774999969 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 18:35 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Switzerland O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 07-07 14:28 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5299998057 | $1.20 |
| 07-06 10:32 | Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $2.00 |
| 07-06 04:37 | United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 19:07 | Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.589999882 | $1.50 |
| 07-04 18:58 | Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |