GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
0x4fd3503c78bd1ececdbe034a4dfe156ce659ef31
- Realised P&L
- $-10.3k
- Volume
- $420.4k
- Markets traded
- 591
- Open portfolio
- $4.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded591
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.892 | 0.984 | $4.9k | +$455.45 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.894 | 0.905 | $39.35 | +$0.48 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.530 | 0.795 | $11.32 | +$3.77 |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? · No | 0.560 | 0.855 | $3.05 | +$1.05 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by March 31, 2027? · No | 0.950 | 0.940 | $2.74 | −$0.03 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.937 | 0.980 | $2.10 | +$0.09 |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.994 | 1.000 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? · No | 0.897 | 0.977 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.085 | $0.09 | −$0.91 |
| Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.450Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?
- +$1.1kat 0.690Buccaneers vs. Panthers
- +$645.96at 0.476Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$421.85at 0.814Will Solana hit $300 in December?
- +$392.19at 0.775Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 19:21 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.96 | $1.11 |
| 10-29 06:48 | Putin out as President of Russia by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.77 |
| 10-27 05:06 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9099992538 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 15:54 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9099997678 | $2.90 |
| 10-24 01:39 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.38 |
| 10-22 08:20 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9099999653 | $1.31 |
| 10-19 18:58 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9099999506 | $1.29 |
| 10-16 18:41 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9099999506 | $1.29 |
| 10-13 17:02 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.909999958 | $1.30 |
| 10-10 04:19 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9099999675 | $1.40 |
| 10-07 01:56 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:15 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $2.00 |
| 10-04 16:18 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.899999685 | $2.00 |
| 09-30 19:05 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 02:29 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $12.00 |