0x4fc7e6fd2039d14b6f0bc8e8a5330c89195ae155
0x4fc7e6fd2039d14b6f0bc8e8a5330c89195ae155
- Realised P&L
- $-13.61
- Volume
- $149.53
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $2.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.969 | $1.29 | +$0.29 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.345 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $167.50 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.160 | $0.48 | −$0.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.83at 0.420SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 14?
- +$2.81at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.72at 0.430Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?
- +$1.71at 0.430Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $6.5B and $8B at market close on IPO day?
- +$1.13at 0.640Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 09:34 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 00:03 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $167.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 15:47 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:42 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:42 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 20:41 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 05:42 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 05:42 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 21:41 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% in September? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 06:33 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 10:32 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799998674 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 02:32 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7799999133 | $1.80 |
| 09-07 12:23 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 00:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 08-26 20:24 | Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |