0x4fbf03a61641f3820427396bbf68abda84b9266d
0x4fbf03a61641f3820427396bbf68abda84b9266d
- Realised P&L
- $0.25
- Volume
- $74.95
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $8.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.685 | $3.11 | +$2.11 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.971 | $1.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.705 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.220 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.735 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.165 | $0.63 | −$0.37 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.230 | $0.41 | −$0.59 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.340 | 0.029 | $0.09 | −$0.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.91at 0.351Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$1.02at 0.502Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?
- +$0.94at 0.522Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?
- +$0.90at 0.532Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?
- +$0.87at 0.540Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 05:15 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 21:06 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 08:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 00:11 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 15:15 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 14:55 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 06:52 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 22:33 | Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 14:31 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 18? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 09:07 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 00:58 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 16:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 08:47 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 00:15 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 16:15 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |