0x4FBeB3A03d79371369e1BD5B85c34AC45B211A4A-1778704693014
0x4fbeb3a03d79371369e1bd5b85c34ac45b211a4a
- Realised P&L
- $-3.69
- Volume
- $5.7k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $7.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.225 | $3.46 | +$1.46 |
| Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.665 | $2.73 | −$0.27 |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get at least 140 million views on week 1? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $1.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the fight be won by submission? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.79at 0.131Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.99at 0.341Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?
- +$-1.00at 0.200Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
- +$-1.04at 0.124Will Bernie say "Stakeholder" in Maine?
- +$-1.04at 0.114Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 20:04 | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get at least 140 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 10-13 18:42 | Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? | BUY | 0.7299998297 | $3.00 |
| 10-13 18:42 | Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $2.00 |
| 08-15 15:27 | Will the fight be won by submission? | BUY | 0.359999904 | $1.50 |
| 07-20 03:28 | Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.04 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 14:51 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.128 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 15:47 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 05-23 14:51 | Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 05-23 14:45 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 05-22 23:20 | Will Trump say "Stupid person" this week? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 05-22 23:19 | Will Trump say "Mamdani" this week? | BUY | 0.0487643123 | $1.00 |
| 05-22 23:18 | Will Bernie say "Stakeholder" in Maine? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 05-15 20:06 | Will 21 Savage be featured on Drake's new album? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.50 |
| 05-14 10:25 | Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 05-13 20:48 | Will Trump Insult Xi this week? | BUY | 0.0370000007 | $2.00 |