Syth117
0x4f810314b496daed3c8ceaa098806c4f7b9f247f
- Realised P&L
- $-587.36
- Volume
- $34.2k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $53.76
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.005 | $53.76 | −$420.60 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.21 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.403 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$350.41 |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? · No | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.21 |
| Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$250.30at 0.137Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
- +$1.27at 0.912Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
- +$0.02at 0.995Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 13:13 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0239633933 | $4.89 |
| 09-11 13:12 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.02340755 | $48.00 |
| 08-06 16:16 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.048999965 | $1.29 |
| 08-06 16:15 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0467627701 | $95.00 |
| 08-02 09:57 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.046 | $1.49 |
| 08-02 09:56 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.046 | $46.78 |
| 07-28 20:28 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0558739602 | $11.08 |
| 07-27 01:36 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | SELL | 0.0600066667 | $7.20 |
| 07-25 05:42 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | SELL | 0.0855444211 | $110.10 |
| 07-20 09:32 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.049 | $1.85 |
| 07-20 09:31 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0484543618 | $94.49 |
| 07-17 11:12 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0509999815 | $2.58 |
| 07-17 11:12 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0509999977 | $22.00 |
| 07-14 19:12 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0607569614 | $5.00 |
| 07-14 05:01 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0730274852 | $14.21 |