falloutmax
0x4f80a5da109252eca37ad090c0f25a2796ecc19c
- Realised P&L
- $-190.43
- Volume
- $18.9k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $7.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes | 0.561 | 0.750 | $5.9k | +$1.5k |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.712 | 0.989 | $1.7k | +$467.26 |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.150 | $93.40 | −$329.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.66at 0.890US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
- +$0.32at 0.940Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$0.31at 0.942Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?
- +$0.29at 0.945Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$0.20at 0.960Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 21:20 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $29.00 |
| 09-09 21:20 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $17.10 |
| 09-09 21:20 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $4.36 |
| 09-08 01:41 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.6468025393 | $404.00 |
| 09-03 00:37 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999988 | $153.00 |
| 09-02 23:06 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.602130616 | $195.00 |
| 08-26 22:12 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.5726814232 | $78.00 |
| 07-19 03:56 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999932 | $19.00 |
| 07-19 03:54 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.27 | $297.00 |
| 07-16 15:50 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.30494 | $30.49 |
| 03-09 17:53 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.3824713526 | $285.00 |
| 03-04 04:51 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.6546340493 | $250.00 |
| 03-02 18:15 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.6899999994 | $129.00 |
| 03-02 18:15 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.6699999996 | $62.00 |
| 03-02 04:49 | US forces enter Iran by March 3? | BUY | 0.981 | $4.91 |