0x4F715E954C2FEd797ef41887cA2260450819927b-1763313404186
0x4f715e954c2fed797ef41887ca2260450819927b
- Realised P&L
- $-81.86
- Volume
- $990.18
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $105.22
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.886 | 0.925 | $105.22 | +$4.42 |
| Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? · Yes | 0.938 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.90 |
| Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Norway vs France FIFA World Cup Match? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.97 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026? · No | 0.471 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.05 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? · No | 0.299 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.22at 0.620Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
- +$13.49at 0.227Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$10.96at 0.901Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$8.81at 0.550Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
- +$0.70at 0.923Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 18:23 | Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.8861105678 | $100.80 |
| 09-22 19:48 | Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8963891672 | $99.30 |
| 09-22 14:10 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.298999981 | $4.40 |
| 09-04 07:20 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.4710874157 | $17.05 |
| 09-02 23:38 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999961 | $3.84 |
| 06-26 07:17 | Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Norway vs France FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.8599999923 | $8.97 |
| 06-25 21:49 | Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.9199999956 | $8.30 |
| 06-25 21:16 | Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match? | SELL | 0.33 | $8.53 |
| 06-25 04:36 | Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.75 | $19.39 |
| 06-15 21:06 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? | BUY | 0.5399999785 | $10.57 |
| 06-11 15:08 | Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.938360103 | $8.90 |
| 06-10 05:37 | Will Donald Trump dance on June 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.987 | $8.95 |
| 06-09 12:07 | Will Donald Trump dance on June 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999956 | $8.53 |
| 06-09 07:17 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? | SELL | 0.1618935808 | $8.55 |
| 06-09 06:52 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $8.45 |