0x4f65f4d4d53365560efc7c1b75475a7351c72372
0x4f65f4d4d53365560efc7c1b75475a7351c72372
- Realised P&L
- $0.31
- Volume
- $166.84
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $6.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.700 | $2.06 | +$1.06 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.395 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.475 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.335 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? · No | 0.610 | 0.595 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.593 | 0.007 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.03at 0.227Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in August?
- +$3.66at 0.359S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 10?
- +$2.97at 0.258Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026?
- +$2.67at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 23:11 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 10:33 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 01:47 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:34 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:27 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7839999561 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:59 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:58 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 8? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 19:56 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:55 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 03:54 | Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.5929998737 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 16:01 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:16 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 22:08 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 13:27 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:25 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |