0x4f63d38357a2a9327c369b0544b8430528ec3b95
0x4f63d38357a2a9327c369b0544b8430528ec3b95
- Realised P&L
- $0.41
- Volume
- $621.00
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $51.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.928 | 0.968 | $24.20 | +$0.99 |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? · No | 0.659 | 0.870 | $8.70 | +$2.11 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.957 | $5.74 | +$0.16 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.934 | 1.000 | $5.00 | +$0.33 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.090 | $4.68 | −$4.66 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.060 | $1.08 | −$4.32 |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.048 | $1.06 | −$2.39 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.075 | $0.75 | −$0.95 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.032 | $0.64 | −$1.16 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.182 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.11at 0.500Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$14.81at 0.500Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?
- +$1.71at 0.786Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.84at 0.790U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.53at 0.920Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 13:27 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 07-14 08:21 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.182 | $1.64 |
| 07-11 01:34 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.54 |
| 07-10 04:46 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $5.58 |
| 07-04 21:26 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.80 |
| 06-23 18:37 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.661 | $3.31 |
| 06-21 14:56 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.657 | $3.29 |
| 06-17 12:39 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.12 |
| 06-17 12:30 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.40 |
| 06-15 12:02 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.28 |
| 06-12 23:16 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.70 |
| 06-07 09:17 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.925 | $4.63 |
| 06-05 01:25 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.929 | $18.58 |
| 06-02 14:26 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.05 |
| 05-29 12:07 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $4.67 |