cgdg
0x4f5bb6dcf70fb8312b2e31c10472ba082f27c6b4
- Realised P&L
- $-3.2k
- Volume
- $154.0k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $300.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$754.81at 0.225US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$227.78at 0.180US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
- +$204.91at 0.524Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$184.47at 0.351US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?
- +$150.00at 0.250US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 18:44 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.1199999999 | $46.58 |
| 09-15 11:25 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.11 | $92.37 |
| 09-15 00:00 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.1199999999 | $92.26 |
| 09-14 23:42 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.12 | $91.74 |
| 09-14 23:32 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.1199999998 | $27.23 |
| 09-14 23:32 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $23.53 |
| 09-14 04:55 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.52 | $110.64 |
| 05-20 15:26 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? | BUY | 0.4399999965 | $25.00 |
| 05-20 15:22 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.0959987392 | $353.31 |
| 05-13 11:23 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.2983949087 | $196.00 |
| 05-13 11:20 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.2827872274 | $100.00 |
| 05-10 20:29 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.3399999978 | $100.00 |
| 05-10 20:28 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.4699999985 | $100.00 |
| 05-10 20:19 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.247292771 | $523.45 |
| 04-02 17:17 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.3960788197 | $100.00 |