Rafael624
0x4f43b48304d5d432e0c18f9354fb87f4f7177015
- Realised P&L
- $146.16
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $192.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.085 | $80.03 | −$19.97 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.355 | $45.81 | +$5.81 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.055 | $40.07 | −$10.93 |
| Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.033 | $22.27 | −$17.73 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.004 | $4.14 | −$5.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$146.16at 0.258Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 16:27 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.07 | $51.00 |
| 10-30 15:58 | Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0592780805 | $40.00 |
| 10-30 15:51 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0084621555 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 14:17 | Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.1062057979 | $100.00 |
| 10-30 14:02 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.9877385592 | $197.71 |
| 10-16 10:12 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.25 | $50.04 |
| 10-14 18:20 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3099999978 | $40.00 |