andron226
0x4f40945e294d2e8ea96efbebda661516fa643592
- Realised P&L
- $-328.12
- Volume
- $9.5k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $79.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.640 | 0.790 | $79.00 | +$15.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$163.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.09at 0.420Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?
- +$8.52at 0.860Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$6.77at 0.820Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$4.13at 0.630Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$4.08at 0.830Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-24 12:22 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $8.24 |
| 02-24 12:20 | Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.1 | $10.10 |
| 02-22 21:17 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.30 |
| 02-22 21:09 | Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.12 |
| 02-22 20:59 | Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.11 | $12.10 |
| 02-22 20:58 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.73 | $135.84 |
| 02-22 20:57 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.74 | $10.30 |
| 02-19 22:56 | Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.11 | $12.10 |
| 02-19 22:44 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.75 | $150.00 |
| 02-19 22:28 | Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.47 | $94.00 |
| 02-19 22:27 | Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.47 | $96.35 |
| 02-17 21:34 | Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.47 | $54.52 |
| 02-17 21:33 | Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.46 | $38.64 |
| 02-17 21:05 | Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.477 | $2.38 |
| 02-17 21:00 | Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.477 | $92.73 |