PapiBowser
0x4f3818cc7bca7c79680bb7fd3ac4108b7f3a2e85
- Realised P&L
- $6.5k
- Volume
- $558.7k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $618.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.070 | $507.64 | +$95.88 |
| Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.004 | $110.54 | −$119.45 |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$899.99 |
| Rams vs. Bears · Bears | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.9k |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? · Yes | 0.524 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.2k |
| Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$943.22 |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Mavericks vs. Knicks · Knicks | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.4kat 0.225Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$2.2kat 0.294Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
- +$1.5kat 0.39776ers vs. Celtics
- +$1.2kat 0.194Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$1.1kat 0.190Commanders vs. Lions
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 03:10 | Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0640719049 | $263.69 |
| 10-26 03:10 | Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0072827236 | $230.00 |
| 10-21 15:53 | Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.048 | $20.71 |
| 10-20 14:09 | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.0058497812 | $156.61 |
| 10-03 13:24 | Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.0536833364 | $943.23 |
| 10-03 13:22 | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0373514122 | $1.0k |
| 06-13 00:53 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0149999999 | $160.99 |
| 05-31 08:34 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.015 | $1000.00 |
| 05-17 16:39 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.2409999993 | $200.00 |
| 05-17 16:38 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.2392402121 | $11.7k |
| 05-17 16:38 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.2499569054 | $8.3k |
| 05-09 06:07 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.2882286868 | $917.77 |
| 05-09 06:03 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.2629888031 | $906.86 |
| 05-03 02:46 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.2899999998 | $1000.00 |
| 05-03 02:28 | 76ers vs. Celtics | SELL | 0.999 | $2.5k |