jgarza
0x4ed891d279569ada1a3c25544f0b74f48009597d
- Realised P&L
- $-68.94
- Volume
- $14.3k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $15.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 14? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.635 | $15.66 | +$0.62 |
| UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card) · Josiah Harrell | 0.577 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.14at 0.537Pacers vs. Bulls
- +$14.41at 0.499Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
- +$0.48at 0.466Liverpool wins the Premier League?
- +$0.26at 0.735Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
- +$0.19at 0.995Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 09:47 | UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.5768639154 | $18.56 |
| 01-31 13:54 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.83 |
| 01-30 16:12 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9969999798 | $20.78 |
| 01-30 14:45 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9969999756 | $29.94 |
| 01-30 13:28 | Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $38.55 |
| 12-30 15:32 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.9929999994 | $4.78 |
| 12-30 15:27 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999955 | $3.98 |
| 12-30 14:02 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999881 | $14.81 |
| 12-30 09:30 | Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.98 |
| 12-29 23:58 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.00 |
| 12-29 19:10 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $47.61 |
| 10-31 15:25 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | BUY | 0.9989999626 | $19.26 |
| 10-30 20:30 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.01 |
| 09-29 13:08 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.45 |
| 09-29 01:23 | Will Solana dip to $130 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.02 |