0x4ed867e3545360537d9c0c48e0211130d7eb0110
0x4ed867e3545360537d9c0c48e0211130d7eb0110
- Realised P&L
- $-15.03
- Volume
- $138.47
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $1.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $220 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.415 | $1.96 | +$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.76at 0.268Will Trump say "Forever" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$2.82at 0.642Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.79at 0.402Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.64at 0.552Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$1.58at 0.760Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 23:35 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $220 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.89 |
| 08-29 03:42 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999504 | $1.67 |
| 08-06 05:43 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 21:37 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |
| 08-02 00:55 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 16:52 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.7599998541 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 07:59 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.17 |
| 07-31 11:55 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-30 20:46 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $4.59 |
| 07-30 00:35 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $4.59 |
| 07-29 13:02 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.95 |
| 07-28 18:15 | Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6799999343 | $2.07 |
| 07-28 06:30 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.26 |
| 07-27 16:05 | Will Trump say "Forever" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.69 |
| 07-25 13:37 | Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.86 |