MountainBoi
0x4ecefb5b148a5ac4f414b277c54cd328ae3a3893
- Realised P&L
- $221.77
- Volume
- $45.7k
- Markets traded
- 222
- Open portfolio
- $232.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded222
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? · Yes | 0.622 | 0.879 | $226.33 | +$66.33 |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.004 | $5.83 | −$4.17 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.279 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$15.97 |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$723.51at 0.611Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?
- +$662.45at 0.367Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$571.82at 0.757Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?
- +$317.15at 0.806Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$219.78at 0.620Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 09:51 | Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? | SELL | 0.087 | $1.02 |
| 07-12 16:50 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.409 | $2.31 |
| 06-26 19:34 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8099999931 | $20.00 |
| 06-26 18:51 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? | BUY | 0.1859999273 | $2.00 |
| 06-26 18:47 | Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $5.00 |
| 06-26 18:45 | Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? | BUY | 0.9149999994 | $100.00 |
| 06-03 04:06 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.0859999286 | $1.00 |
| 05-30 21:35 | Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | BUY | 0.4599999844 | $10.00 |
| 05-30 21:32 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.06 | $18.00 |
| 05-17 19:41 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.3169999816 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 19:12 | Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? | BUY | 0.449999955 | $5.00 |
| 05-03 16:11 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | SELL | 0.987 | $89.71 |
| 04-26 18:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $2.78 |
| 04-26 18:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $1.86 |
| 04-26 05:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | BUY | 0.52 | $0.93 |