yerubaalAA
0x4ec8b0d469bab75917c70d0ffa4439b15c1396a5
- Realised P&L
- $-2.5k
- Volume
- $271.1k
- Markets traded
- 208
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded208
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel election happen as scheduled? · Yes | 0.908 | 0.958 | $1.1k | +$55.14 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.502 | 0.515 | $894.32 | +$23.20 |
| Hawks vs. Nets · Nets | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 5? · Up | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.68 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · No | 0.285 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$199.50 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.49 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? · Yes | 0.878 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$67.61 |
| Spurs vs. Lakers · Spurs | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.83 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? · Yes | 0.266 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.14 |
| 76ers vs. Bulls · 76ers | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.34 |
| Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? · Yes | 0.245 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.00 |
| Thunder vs. Trail Blazers · Thunder | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.40 |
| Nuggets vs. Warriors · Nuggets | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.24 |
| Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.623Israel ground offensive in Rafah by April 30?
- +$1.4kat 0.019Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$977.78at 0.185Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
- +$758.00at 0.165Iran military response by Monday?
- +$720.08at 0.753Israel military action against Iran in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 08:36 | Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.9064380201 | $82.78 |
| 09-10 14:31 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $72.24 |
| 09-08 17:02 | Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.923750469 | $147.71 |
| 09-04 18:27 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $199.68 |
| 09-04 13:38 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $199.68 |
| 07-30 10:10 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.77 | $154.08 |
| 07-30 10:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.9 | $199.80 |
| 07-24 09:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.49 | $99.96 |
| 07-23 09:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.75 | $360.00 |
| 07-22 19:27 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.66 | $198.00 |
| 07-22 19:27 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20? | SELL | 0.997 | $199.40 |
| 07-19 08:29 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? | BUY | 0.86 | $135.88 |
| 07-19 08:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.75 | $165.00 |
| 07-19 08:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? | BUY | 0.84 | $102.40 |
| 07-18 21:52 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20? | BUY | 0.85 | $204.00 |