0x4eBB94D5100FAE7ba5F249CE17f3E229468149b4-1772468714857
0x4ebb94d5100fae7ba5f249ce17f3e229468149b4
- Realised P&L
- $12.87
- Volume
- $587.70
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $5.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.945 | $2.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.989 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WA-01 House seat? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.975 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.935 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.94at 0.049Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
- +$5.62at 0.151Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.19at 0.488Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$3.00at 0.140Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$2.46at 0.552Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 18:47 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9199995952 | $2.00 |
| 10-15 14:41 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:58 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.5449999164 | $3.00 |
| 10-06 20:57 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.4809999412 | $3.00 |
| 09-02 10:14 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.7 | $0.97 |
| 05-04 15:04 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.42 | $0.93 |
| 04-28 17:57 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.0131557228 | $1.01 |
| 04-27 19:34 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.0179999825 | $1.00 |
| 04-26 15:14 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.0929999593 | $2.00 |
| 04-26 14:30 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.985 | $3.13 |
| 04-19 19:01 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.985 | $1.54 |
| 04-19 15:55 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.33 |
| 04-14 07:27 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.56 | $4.00 |
| 04-12 17:11 | Will the Democratic Party win the WA-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.919999448 | $1.00 |
| 04-12 17:10 | Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299997117 | $1.00 |