dlvr
0x4eabd327981f0aeab04793622d57321fa9ec00a2
- Realised P&L
- $3.41
- Volume
- $130.53
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $9.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 2 – Nov 6? · No | 0.850 | 0.870 | $4.96 | +$0.11 |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 on November 2? · No | 0.399 | 0.320 | $3.50 | −$0.86 |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $275 on November 2? · No | 0.180 | 0.120 | $0.65 | −$0.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.64at 0.881Will Amazon (AMZN) close at <$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
- +$0.63at 0.640Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 23 above $390?
- +$0.61at 0.791Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$144 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
- +$0.60at 0.680Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?
- +$0.51at 0.820Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 on March 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-25 18:37 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 23 above $380? | BUY | 0.88 | $1.10 |
| 03-25 16:28 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 23 above $5.50? | SELL | 0.83 | $1.24 |
| 03-25 14:03 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 23 above $5.50? | BUY | 0.729999881 | $1.35 |
| 03-25 01:20 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 23 above $161? | BUY | 0.7419998555 | $1.13 |
| 03-25 01:20 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$360 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.16 |
| 03-24 21:00 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 23 above $390? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.12 |
| 03-24 19:14 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | BUY | 0.6699998673 | $1.01 |
| 03-24 18:11 | Will Meta (META) close at $580-$590 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | SELL | 0.83 | $1.14 |
| 03-24 16:29 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | SELL | 0.82 | $1.06 |
| 03-24 14:10 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | SELL | 0.69 | $1.01 |
| 03-24 13:46 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$360 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | BUY | 0.8899999837 | $1.09 |
| 03-24 13:43 | Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $156-$158 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | SELL | 0.89 | $1.04 |
| 03-24 09:58 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $380-$385 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | BUY | 0.8299994955 | $1.02 |
| 03-24 09:48 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $375-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | BUY | 0.8699994946 | $1.36 |
| 03-24 07:05 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $380-$385 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | BUY | 0.85 | $1.19 |