Nikog80
0x4ea6c91d2f0b44cb017a1e3f252488747a2d3b78
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $69.3k
- Markets traded
- 208
- Open portfolio
- $372.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded208
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.43at 0.323US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$70.38at 0.823Ebola case in the US by June 30?
- +$55.02at 0.759Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$50.85at 0.915Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$39.49at 0.190Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 11:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.3 | $301.50 |
| 08-13 11:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.45 | $726.30 |
| 08-04 21:52 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.49 | $9.80 |
| 08-02 08:53 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4 | $8.00 |
| 08-02 08:51 | Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $0.45 |
| 08-02 08:50 | Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $17.09 |
| 08-02 08:50 | Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $18.32 |
| 07-26 12:03 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $98.60 |
| 07-26 12:03 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $93.00 |
| 07-26 12:02 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $58.00 |
| 07-26 12:01 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July? | SELL | 0.9 | $63.15 |
| 07-26 02:43 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July? | BUY | 0.71 | $46.15 |
| 07-25 14:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $54.00 |
| 07-24 14:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $46.80 |
| 07-21 06:54 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.56 | $179.20 |