bm3i82qz3py9
0x4e890595b1b6358d9eee1c1605017577ab6d2552
- Realised P&L
- $-30.25
- Volume
- $708.53
- Markets traded
- 236
- Open portfolio
- $1.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded236
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.106 | $1.06 | +$0.07 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.120 | $0.29 | −$0.71 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.029 | $0.27 | −$0.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.62at 0.076Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?
- +$1.44at 0.400Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$1.40at 0.589Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
- +$1.19at 0.457Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
- +$1.06at 0.490Spread: Celtics (-13.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 02:12 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.56 | $0.01 |
| 08-02 02:11 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.58 | $0.01 |
| 08-02 02:11 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.57 | $0.14 |
| 08-02 02:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.48 | $0.22 |
| 08-02 02:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.11 |
| 08-02 02:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.53 | $0.10 |
| 08-02 02:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.59 | $0.04 |
| 07-31 22:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.9299999577 | $1.10 |
| 07-27 22:19 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.10 |
| 07-23 18:09 | Will Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing? | BUY | 0.9759999858 | $1.10 |
| 06-08 03:10 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6999994273 | $1.10 |
| 06-06 02:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET | SELL | 0.04 | $0.08 |
| 06-06 02:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 00:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | SELL | 0.03 | $0.05 |
| 06-06 00:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |