weather-vane
0x4e65c9cfd7e345cb6284e9016c28193fd78e7a19
- Realised P&L
- $101.47
- Volume
- $118.7k
- Markets traded
- 630
- Open portfolio
- $760.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded630
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$93.41at 0.894Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$90.43at 0.253Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?
- +$56.68at 0.718Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?
- +$55.27at 0.903Will Trump say "Darth Vader" in September?
- +$42.13at 0.223Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 01:43 | Will Trump say "Mardi Gras" this week? | BUY | 0.48 | $48.00 |
| 10-13 01:38 | Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 3+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska? | BUY | 0.797314 | $79.73 |
| 10-13 00:09 | Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? | BUY | 0.48 | $14.40 |
| 10-12 23:59 | Will Trump say "Mardi Gras" this week? | BUY | 0.48 | $12.00 |
| 10-12 23:59 | Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? | BUY | 0.6531468531 | $46.70 |
| 10-12 23:58 | Will Trump say "Osama Bin Laden" this week? | BUY | 0.7 | $35.00 |
| 10-12 23:57 | Will Trump say "Mardi Gras" this week? | BUY | 0.4681818182 | $51.50 |
| 10-12 23:26 | Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.39 | $14.34 |
| 10-12 23:25 | Will Trump say "Shit" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.58 | $13.92 |
| 10-12 23:23 | Will Trump say "Japan" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska? | BUY | 0.3825024374 | $23.54 |
| 10-12 23:22 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska? | BUY | 0.15 | $30.00 |
| 10-11 02:50 | Will Trump say "Psychological" or "Psychologically" this week? | BUY | 0.99 | $265.62 |
| 10-11 02:29 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026? | SELL | 0.861 | $51.66 |
| 10-09 19:23 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.892 | $89.20 |
| 10-09 19:19 | Will "Nordic" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? | BUY | 0.78 | $8.35 |