dfgr5r4
0x4e531e18c31775192ad1ddb6581d8ba8d31373ab
- Realised P&L
- $829.89
- Volume
- $11.2k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $16.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 10? · No | 0.997 | 0.987 | $10.83 | −$0.12 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on October 10? · No | 0.998 | 0.991 | $6.12 | −$0.04 |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 7? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.06 |
| Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5 · Over | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$660.00at 0.780Panthers vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5
- +$210.00at 0.790Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5
- +$12.93at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 7?
- +$4.85at 0.756Wild vs. Stars: O/U 7.5
- +$0.58at 0.962Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 Week of May 18 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 12:23 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.95 |
| 10-08 10:09 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on October 10? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.17 |
| 09-30 02:09 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.996 | $6.35 |
| 08-31 15:28 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be 73°F or below on September 1? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.12 |
| 07-07 01:28 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 8? | BUY | 0.991 | $9.35 |
| 07-05 02:36 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of July 6 above $3.00? | BUY | 0.98 | $12.33 |
| 06-24 02:00 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 25? | BUY | 0.975 | $11.09 |
| 06-16 01:36 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? | BUY | 0.98 | $20.14 |
| 06-09 01:08 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 10? | BUY | 0.985 | $10.54 |
| 06-02 00:41 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 3? | BUY | 0.9850742857 | $10.34 |
| 05-28 00:38 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 28? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.19 |
| 05-19 00:53 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 Week of May 18 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $14.39 |
| 05-13 01:04 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 11 2026? | BUY | 0.974 | $10.52 |
| 05-11 00:42 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 12? | BUY | 0.99 | $17.83 |
| 04-20 10:57 | Wild vs. Stars: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.75 | $14.77 |