115
0x4e2efa4339cdd564da440893feaa4056ab5ff747
- Realised P&L
- $517.98
- Volume
- $448.0k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $751.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.460 | $562.47 | +$443.65 |
| Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.615 | $188.88 | +$161.24 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.25 |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.61 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.00 |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.10at 0.450Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?
- +$12.60at 0.139Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference?
- +$2.64at 0.001Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024?
- +$2.00at 0.001Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?
- +$2.00at 0.001Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 13:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August? | SELL | 0.946 | $378.40 |
| 08-23 13:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August? | BUY | 0.947 | $378.80 |
| 08-04 13:00 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | SELL | 0.1 | $32.69 |
| 07-21 08:15 | Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | BUY | 0.097 | $67.90 |
| 07-20 16:54 | Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | SELL | 0.098 | $1.96 |
| 07-20 16:54 | Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | BUY | 0.098 | $21.56 |
| 07-19 12:25 | Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? | BUY | 0.063 | $28.05 |
| 07-18 17:32 | Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | BUY | 0.098 | $3.63 |
| 07-18 12:12 | Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? | BUY | 0.062 | $4.34 |
| 07-17 19:04 | Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | BUY | 0.099 | $4.46 |
| 07-14 20:09 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.185 | $9.25 |
| 06-28 18:56 | Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.61 |
| 06-14 19:26 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 06-13 17:52 | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.059 | $5.90 |
| 06-13 17:50 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $9.90 |