Triumphator
0x4e16ebaa4f774b71c1057b07eb7ffabc769f8c8c
- Realised P&L
- $51.29
- Volume
- $6.8k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $29.23
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.255 | $19.62 | −$0.38 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.270 | 0.090 | $4.67 | −$9.33 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.011 | $4.20 | −$5.80 |
| Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.013 | $0.74 | −$2.26 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31? · No | 0.117 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$80.70at 0.320Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?
- +$45.15at 0.187Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
- +$21.91at 0.560Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?
- +$13.89at 0.594Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by August 31, 2026?
- +$6.29at 0.800US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 16:08 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15? | BUY | 0.3116609634 | $37.00 |
| 09-02 09:57 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4 | $15.00 |
| 08-31 19:17 | Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31? | BUY | 0.1168832856 | $34.80 |
| 08-31 18:43 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2599999935 | $20.00 |
| 08-30 23:11 | Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5844155761 | $20.00 |
| 08-23 18:56 | Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.3399999912 | $20.00 |
| 08-22 01:34 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August? | BUY | 0.5898033918 | $15.00 |
| 08-21 17:38 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 08-21 17:29 | Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.0544554456 | $3.00 |
| 08-20 19:33 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |
| 08-20 02:53 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August? | BUY | 0.5498331972 | $27.36 |
| 08-11 18:31 | Will annual inflation be 4.1% in July? | BUY | 0.0016497736 | $3.46 |
| 08-11 18:29 | Will annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July? | BUY | 0.0022695885 | $3.86 |
| 08-10 16:41 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $6.00 |
| 08-10 16:35 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999904 | $14.00 |