0x4defdab6d6b49fe23db2d99b03381100dc2d9bd5
0x4defdab6d6b49fe23db2d99b03381100dc2d9bd5
- Realised P&L
- $-3.25
- Volume
- $45.79
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $3.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.560 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.700 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.510 | $0.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.135 | $0.25 | −$0.75 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.370 | 0.037 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.94at 0.340US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$1.06at 0.490Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$0.87at 0.540Will Andy Burnham say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the next PMQ?
- +$0.55at 0.649SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 11?
- +$0.42at 0.708Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 05:27 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 21:25 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 07:10 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 22:28 | Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 02:26 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 17:28 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 09:24 | Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 22:29 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 13:58 | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on September 14? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 05:53 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 21:52 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 01:42 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 17:39 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 09:02 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on September 10? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 22:13 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |