Lucky444444
0x4dec3cbaa7d805b54731bac0c4b8b8f15119001e
- Realised P&L
- $-191.80
- Volume
- $36.3k
- Markets traded
- 168
- Open portfolio
- $15.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded168
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$130.62at 0.472Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 4?
- +$81.10at 0.518Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 26?
- +$76.27at 0.567LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
- +$57.91at 0.532Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 27?
- +$49.39at 0.410LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 Winner
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 03:06 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 16:37 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.97 | $11.05 |
| 08-06 16:25 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.9571428571 | $26.80 |
| 08-06 15:29 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 15:23 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 15:03 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.4099998237 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 14:57 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.4099998237 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 14:50 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 14:19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |
| 08-06 11:54 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 11:51 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 11:51 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.3842364299 | $10.00 |
| 08-06 10:49 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.4347826087 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 10:49 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.3299999591 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 09:42 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.4499997975 | $1.00 |