0x4de3cb7551311290db81a21a6f9f6f14dec5f463
- Realised P&L
- $15.62
- Volume
- $269.45
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $15.93
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.300 | 0.920 | $6.13 | +$4.13 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.355 | $2.37 | +$0.37 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.600 | 1.000 | $2.23 | +$0.89 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.735 | $1.84 | −$0.16 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.210 | 0.125 | $1.19 | −$0.81 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.230 | $1.12 | −$0.88 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.115 | $1.05 | −$0.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.52at 0.210Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$4.61at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$4.45at 0.310US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$3.07at 0.402Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 19:32 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 23:03 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 03:00 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999816 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 18:59 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 09:07 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 00:44 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 16:21 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 02:48 | Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 03:34 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 18:09 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August? | BUY | 0.4499999438 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 09:32 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 00:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5999998209 | $1.34 |
| 09-07 16:10 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 13:05 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 17:59 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |