PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4dCB2b9af2Fd6324abc96e9e0cb6B908c08f2e90-1764880012517

0x4dcb2b9af2fd6324abc96e9e0cb6b908c08f2e90

Realised P&L
$-222.66
Volume
$6.7k
Markets traded
9
Open portfolio
$2.2k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded9
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration62.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample7 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration96.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4510.425$2.2k$132.87
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes0.4590.365$76.38$19.64
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? · Yes0.3000.000$0.00$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-05 17:16Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?BUY0.7199999981$15.00
05-03 16:37Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?SELL0.47$4.08
05-03 16:30Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?BUY0.4588436365$100.00
04-29 17:41Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?BUY0.2899999846$10.00
04-29 17:41Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?BUY0.299999982$10.00
04-29 17:41Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?SELL0.0038609143$1.75
04-29 17:41Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?SELL0.9891828218$118.28
04-24 18:17Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?BUY0.9969999934$119.22
04-22 19:57Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?BUY0.2199999985$100.00
03-20 17:27Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4299999999$1.5k
03-01 17:43Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.5$630.00
12-13 10:02Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.48$42.00
12-13 10:02Maduro out by March 31, 2026?SELL0.61$21.40
12-13 10:01Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.87$19.77
12-11 20:31Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4699999964$29.00