FreshlyManners
0x4dba6f046ef237505d4417a7ba6c2cb52b5d3de8
- Realised P&L
- $-207.73
- Volume
- $97.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,188
- Open portfolio
- $130.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,188
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.71at 0.768Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 27?
- +$40.45at 0.804Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 12?
- +$39.87at 0.807Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 12?
- +$35.41at 0.828Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 12?
- +$33.93at 0.875Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on August 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 19:56 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on October 2? | BUY | 0.975 | $9.86 |
| 10-02 19:56 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on October 2? | BUY | 0.975 | $5.92 |
| 10-02 19:07 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.96 | $58.77 |
| 10-02 19:06 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.9673636067 | $59.22 |
| 10-02 18:40 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 2? | BUY | 0.742574256 | $10.00 |
| 10-02 18:07 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on October 2? | BUY | 0.8199999748 | $4.55 |
| 10-02 17:02 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on October 2? | BUY | 0.8789999442 | $10.00 |
| 10-02 16:48 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $0.01 |
| 10-02 16:19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.997 | $4.99 |
| 10-02 16:19 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.09 |
| 10-02 16:19 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.36 |
| 10-02 15:15 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.8499999915 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 15:11 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.8420538166 | $30.00 |
| 10-02 13:27 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.5499999807 | $10.00 |
| 10-02 12:30 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |