0x4Db156B8686ee1FFF64471c9e83f87673712e2Ab-1771421075829
0x4db156b8686ee1fff64471c9e83f87673712e2ab
- Realised P&L
- $2.8k
- Volume
- $78.4k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.536 | 0.195 | $973.08 | −$1.7k |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No | 0.928 | 0.950 | $619.24 | +$14.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$930.76at 0.855Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$920.30at 0.710Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$516.74at 0.698Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
- +$316.65at 0.670Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$306.95at 0.836Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 15:40 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $91.00 |
| 09-25 15:40 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $373.07 |
| 08-24 10:37 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $79.33 |
| 08-24 10:36 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $99.10 |
| 08-24 10:35 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $2.15 |
| 08-24 10:34 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $10.01 |
| 08-24 10:28 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.20 |
| 08-24 10:28 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $83.76 |
| 08-24 10:21 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.72 |
| 08-24 10:21 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.39 |
| 08-22 17:12 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $81.00 |
| 08-22 17:12 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $104.00 |
| 08-22 17:12 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $69.00 |
| 08-22 17:10 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $21.85 |
| 08-22 17:07 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $12.42 |