0x4da1dc377e931f32aad47bfa04bad588a03274fe
- Realised P&L
- $-6.97
- Volume
- $201.60
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $4.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.935 | $2.34 | +$0.34 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.295 | $1.97 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.69at 0.306Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in June?
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.94at 0.412Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.470Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
- +$1.92at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 00:48 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 04:09 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 17:35 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 08:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 07:54 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 00:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 01:07 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $177 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 01:04 | Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-30 03:59 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-29 19:52 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 21:02 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 22:34 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 14:08 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.389999839 | $1.26 |
| 08-19 14:54 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 06:37 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |