PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4d9f1C88947C20Aa112f019d8aAf0F11bC4C39f9-1779813876553

0x4d9f1c88947c20aa112f019d8aaf0f11bc4c39f9

Realised P&L
$259.41
Volume
$20.3k
Markets traded
630
Open portfolio
$39.98

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded630
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)2.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-20 16:34Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 20?SELL0.994$39.75
09-17 15:43Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 17?SELL0.995$39.80
09-17 14:40Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on September 17?SELL0.99$39.60
09-16 15:37Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 16?SELL0.979665$39.19
09-16 13:33Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 16?SELL0.999$39.96
09-15 13:25Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 15?SELL0.999$39.96
09-14 14:35Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on September 14?SELL0.99277775$39.71
09-11 16:02Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 11?SELL0.998$39.92
09-10 08:18Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 10?SELL0.98$39.20
09-06 09:48Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?SELL0.875$35.00
08-29 15:17Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 29?SELL0.995$39.80
08-26 19:04Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 26?SELL0.996$39.84
08-20 16:31Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 20?SELL0.998$39.92
08-18 15:25Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 18?SELL0.994$14.57
08-16 09:12Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?SELL0.99675$39.87