0x4d9E288591F8694bC4F1c8c65D5D742450220841-1771002237199
0x4d9e288591f8694bc4f1c8c65d5d742450220841
- Realised P&L
- $-183.72
- Volume
- $14.7k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $3.89
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.003 | $3.89 | −$46.11 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? · Yes | 0.512 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? · Yes | 0.502 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$125.00 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.084 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$105.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$249.53at 0.337Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
- +$116.32at 0.524Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
- +$48.05at 0.650US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$-20.00at 0.003US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$-25.00at 0.314Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 13:55 | Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.7199949883 | $153.72 |
| 05-16 13:47 | Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3213616886 | $20.00 |
| 04-11 08:00 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.5125216628 | $200.00 |
| 04-10 20:47 | Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | BUY | 0.3144406886 | $25.00 |
| 04-10 20:41 | Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? | BUY | 0.0915927785 | $10.00 |
| 04-10 19:35 | Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3248268732 | $100.00 |
| 04-10 19:35 | Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? | BUY | 0.0336598391 | $40.00 |
| 04-05 21:26 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.003 | $18.00 |
| 04-05 21:02 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | SELL | 0.0014899109 | $0.49 |
| 04-05 20:51 | Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE? | BUY | 0.0599965738 | $50.00 |
| 04-05 20:50 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999974 | $37.00 |
| 04-05 20:42 | Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE? | BUY | 0.0379400917 | $60.00 |
| 04-05 18:55 | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0835868379 | $33.00 |
| 04-05 18:54 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5189171644 | $99.92 |
| 04-05 15:03 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |