CryptoLiu
0x4d8a31c1bbe22eeb1e3d296170371202c6042953
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $2.17M
- Markets traded
- 477
- Open portfolio
- $163.89
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded477
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.105 | $157.50 | −$37.50 |
| Valantis FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.300 | $5.76 | −$9.61 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.062 | $0.62 | −$1.59 |
| Will Kael Penta in LPL Split 3 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.151Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?
- +$1.5kat 0.038Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament
- +$1.4kat 0.191Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25?
- +$844.58at 0.530LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A
- +$521.35at 0.651Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 23:58 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.11975992 | $301.81 |
| 10-11 04:07 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | SELL | 0.99 | $1.5k |
| 10-10 18:18 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 12? | SELL | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 10-10 17:59 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.67 | $3.35 |
| 08-24 11:47 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.1433777721 | $61.48 |
| 08-24 11:46 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.1329848391 | $307.09 |
| 08-21 16:54 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.45 |
| 08-21 11:02 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.08 |
| 08-07 15:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.24 | $24.95 |
| 08-07 03:51 | Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.1018808779 | $171.05 |
| 08-07 03:51 | Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.1008082047 | $653.67 |
| 08-02 00:10 | Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | SELL | 0.82 | $41.00 |
| 08-01 16:56 | Will Hope Penta in LPL Split 3 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 16:56 | Will Shanks Penta in LPL Split 3 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 16:21 | Will Hope Penta in LPL Split 3 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |