Convex79
0x4d86949e352449ab09706267910a0e8b6d4e1cb2
- Realised P&L
- $5.5k
- Volume
- $10.05M
- Markets traded
- 1,803
- Open portfolio
- $424.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,803
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.010Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$664.50at 0.012Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?
- +$531.78at 0.008Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$495.90at 0.004Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$481.01at 0.006Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 17:49 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.30 |
| 10-29 15:43 | Modi out by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.10 |
| 10-25 22:13 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.21 |
| 10-04 21:33 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.35 |
| 10-03 10:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3? | SELL | 0.041 | $10.95 |
| 09-30 21:10 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $15.19 |
| 09-19 06:41 | Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September? | SELL | 0.057 | $5.70 |
| 09-19 06:40 | Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September? | SELL | 0.059 | $5.90 |
| 09-15 14:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September? | SELL | 0.1 | $101.90 |
| 09-15 10:19 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September? | SELL | 0.012 | $3.16 |
| 09-15 10:17 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September? | SELL | 0.11 | $160.29 |
| 09-11 14:41 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.82 |
| 09-11 06:33 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in September? | SELL | 0.0232877698 | $16.19 |
| 09-11 06:32 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September? | SELL | 0.0181577579 | $45.12 |
| 09-11 06:31 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September? | SELL | 0.016 | $65.59 |