Convex79
0x4d86949e352449ab09706267910a0e8b6d4e1cb2
- Realised P&L
- $985.18
- Volume
- $7.91M
- Markets traded
- 861
- Open portfolio
- $625.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded861
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.010Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$531.78at 0.008Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$495.90at 0.004Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$481.01at 0.006Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$409.10at 0.003Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 11:24 | Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B | SELL | 0.19 | $144.29 |
| 07-25 21:58 | La Velada del Año 6: Plex vs. Fernanfloo | SELL | 0.1337460913 | $21.39 |
| 07-25 21:58 | La Velada del Año 6: Plex vs. Fernanfloo | SELL | 0.15 | $6.54 |
| 07-08 00:57 | Will Este Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | SELL | 0.052 | $1.27 |
| 07-01 01:49 | Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.016 | $0.14 |
| 06-29 20:57 | Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.36 |
| 06-29 20:56 | Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $1.87 |
| 06-29 20:45 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.15 |
| 06-29 20:43 | Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Norway? | SELL | 0.029 | $27.98 |
| 06-27 18:39 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | SELL | 0.037 | $107.30 |
| 06-23 00:39 | Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.01 | $3.95 |
| 06-19 20:41 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.011 | $18.50 |
| 06-18 18:49 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.60 |
| 06-18 16:57 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | SELL | 0.003 | $5.46 |
| 06-18 14:54 | Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? | SELL | 0.01 | $47.67 |