davidboyd
0x4d7be6fa0ba01c78f715435473627f35e0da1479
- Realised P&L
- $-27.21
- Volume
- $11.7k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $45.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have 163 or more seats after the 2026 election? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.515 | $25.64 | −$12.20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 18? · No | 0.930 | 0.795 | $19.86 | −$3.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.65at 0.954Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
- +$0.10at 0.998Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
- +$0.10at 0.992South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested before April?
- +$0.08at 0.998Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January?
- +$0.08at 0.993U.S. recession before May 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:24 | Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.23 |
| 01-31 13:25 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999913 | $19.81 |
| 01-30 14:44 | Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.997999921 | $11.50 |
| 01-30 13:26 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $51.69 |
| 01-30 13:07 | Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999879 | $41.79 |
| 12-30 17:17 | Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.37 |
| 12-30 10:11 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.04 |
| 12-30 01:34 | Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.76 |
| 12-30 01:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.63 |
| 12-29 23:33 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999748 | $35.08 |
| 12-29 18:54 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.55 |
| 10-30 19:10 | Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.44 |
| 10-30 18:43 | Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $38.22 |
| 10-30 18:18 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.9539999997 | $34.24 |
| 09-29 17:01 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.04 |