bumiko
0x4d7a4dc3ac271580adf737ed557cfa3ec42de80e
- Realised P&L
- $-3.19
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $22.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.936 | 0.967 | $10.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.948 | 0.923 | $9.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.905 | $2.55 | +$0.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.61at 0.600US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?
- +$0.59at 0.630Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May?
- +$0.47at 0.650US recession in 2025?
- +$0.25at 0.860US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?
- +$0.25at 0.770US national Solana reserve in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-05 09:44 | Will Charlie Hook win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | SELL | 0.998 | $349.30 |
| 11-05 03:47 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 11-05 03:46 | Will Charlie Hook win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | BUY | 0.999 | $352.70 |
| 11-05 03:46 | Will Igor Kurganov win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | SELL | 0.998 | $322.69 |
| 11-05 03:45 | Will Igor Kurganov win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | BUY | 0.999 | $324.60 |
| 11-05 03:44 | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.936 | $10.00 |
| 11-05 03:44 | Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9483513231 | $10.00 |
| 11-05 03:42 | US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025? | SELL | 0.968 | $2.25 |
| 11-05 03:42 | US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? | SELL | 0.965 | $1.60 |
| 11-05 03:42 | US recession in 2025? | SELL | 0.954 | $1.46 |
| 11-05 03:41 | US national Solana reserve in 2025? | SELL | 0.962 | $1.24 |
| 11-05 03:41 | US national XRP reserve in 2025? | SELL | 0.961 | $1.24 |
| 11-05 03:41 | Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025? | SELL | 0.951 | $1.01 |
| 06-15 03:57 | Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.9399996992 | $1.00 |
| 06-15 03:57 | Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? | BUY | 0.979999657 | $2.00 |