OrYn64
0x4d76fd2818d8655235e273028504c80dad9cd7a0
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $117.5k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $3.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.182Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.073Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$600.00at 0.520Ethereum flipped in 2026?
- +$492.94at 0.687Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?
- +$428.50at 0.609Mexican Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfils
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 11:54 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $200.00 |
| 09-11 14:27 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.81 | $404.99 |
| 09-10 14:26 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6190888383 | $135.89 |
| 09-09 18:46 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.5757518039 | $148.42 |
| 08-25 05:45 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7 | $880.60 |
| 08-23 19:48 | Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe | BUY | 0.3599999987 | $100.00 |
| 08-21 18:30 | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? | SELL | 0.998 | $712.85 |
| 08-21 15:11 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.64 | $133.19 |
| 08-19 13:45 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.8099999999 | $500.00 |
| 08-19 13:45 | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.6999999999 | $500.00 |
| 08-14 10:13 | Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.47 | $0.17 |
| 07-18 20:59 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.74 | $740.00 |
| 07-16 10:23 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $44.80 |
| 07-13 10:02 | Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.76 | $158.72 |
| 07-13 09:21 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.57 | $12.49 |