chilloutTt
0x4d70984ff9a047d283888fceb207df3e76782698
- Realised P&L
- $-29.4k
- Volume
- $1.95M
- Markets traded
- 327
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded327
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.5kat 0.345Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?
- +$11.4kat 0.200Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?
- +$5.8kat 0.420Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?
- +$5.7kat 0.399XRP above $2.10 on June 27?
- +$4.1kat 0.558XRP Up or Down on June 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 18:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.6301760594 | $1.0k |
| 10-08 16:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.4936184751 | $168.32 |
| 10-08 16:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.490467706 | $220.22 |
| 10-08 16:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.500431745 | $500.00 |
| 10-08 16:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.48 | $79.68 |
| 09-29 10:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 29? | SELL | 0.87 | $109.62 |
| 09-29 10:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 29? | SELL | 0.9 | $294.30 |
| 09-29 10:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 29? | SELL | 0.9 | $18.00 |
| 09-28 15:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 29? | BUY | 0.51 | $241.23 |
| 09-16 18:03 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.1k |
| 09-16 13:48 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.89 | $1000.00 |
| 09-11 12:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET | SELL | 0.0729091766 | $131.45 |
| 09-11 12:09 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.4 | $243.90 |
| 09-11 11:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET | BUY | 0.539113451 | $1.0k |
| 09-11 11:52 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4099999997 | $250.00 |