bbplig
0x4d709041e5cb24ea9a9dbcf6907cca93465bd173
- Realised P&L
- $31.24
- Volume
- $26.0k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $9.27
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? · No | 0.989 | 0.995 | $5.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.715 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.955 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.935 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.810 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$683.23at 0.807Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 2?
- +$70.28at 0.846Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 28?
- +$7.01at 0.999Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?
- +$5.09at 0.745Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2?
- +$5.02at 0.749Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:08 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.829999502 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 02:01 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | BUY | 0.988999999 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 02:00 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.0k |
| 09-11 04:42 | Will Trump say "My Father" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.89 |
| 09-11 00:28 | Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 09-10 20:38 | Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 11? | BUY | 0.998 | $85.20 |
| 09-10 19:12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 10? | SELL | 0.19784 | $0.49 |
| 09-10 19:02 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 10? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 18:58 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 11? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 18:58 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.6199997024 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 18:56 | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 09-10 18:54 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 09-10 18:49 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 14:47 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 09-10 14:46 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? | BUY | 0.9957129242 | $346.85 |