0x4D534c13AA65624516a7035F170017C102177536-1768012802560
0x4d534c13aa65624516a7035f170017c102177536
- Realised P&L
- $-514.68
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $396.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.963 | $192.50 | +$22.50 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.945 | $189.00 | +$19.00 |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.055 | $14.85 | −$44.55 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs · Top Esports | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? · No | 0.605 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$589.49 |
| LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs · T1 | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.61at 0.362LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs
- +$42.00at 0.160Government shutdown on Saturday?
- +$30.40at 0.696Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$30.00at 0.850Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$2.07at 0.540Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-11 00:22 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.21 | $41.99 |
| 03-09 06:01 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.5809962766 | $29.38 |
| 02-21 04:16 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $170.00 |
| 02-15 10:20 | LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | SELL | 0.52 | $26.00 |
| 02-15 04:08 | Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.42 |
| 02-15 03:57 | LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 02-10 02:15 | Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | BUY | 0.023 | $0.56 |
| 01-31 08:41 | Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.20 |
| 01-28 07:24 | Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $59.40 |
| 01-15 01:24 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.54 | $8.70 |
| 01-15 01:23 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.54 | $13.50 |
| 01-15 01:23 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.54 | $5.10 |