0x4D520DC616a7744C9CEfD9740146705B43E49194-1783087506972
0x4d520dc616a7744c9cefd9740146705b43e49194
- Realised P&L
- $-71.17
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $18.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.119 | $18.94 | −$4.94 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.28at 0.138Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
- +$13.08at 0.173Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
- +$2.06at 0.269Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?
- +$1.89at 0.339Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?
- +$1.84at 0.386Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 17:57 | Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.1009999729 | $3.19 |
| 07-27 17:57 | Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.101999967 | $2.66 |
| 07-27 17:57 | Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.167999951 | $2.66 |
| 07-24 19:45 | Will Meta (META) close above $600 on July 24? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.65 |
| 07-24 14:11 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? | BUY | 0.4409999557 | $4.63 |
| 07-22 10:46 | Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale? | SELL | 0.56 | $6.58 |
| 07-22 09:31 | Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale? | BUY | 0.3699999702 | $4.35 |
| 07-20 21:12 | Will there be no next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.35 |
| 07-17 01:24 | Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 25 and 30 minutes long? | BUY | 0.5499999489 | $3.23 |
| 07-16 22:45 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16? | BUY | 0.5 | $3.26 |
| 07-13 14:17 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $3.32 |
| 07-13 14:17 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY | 0.1699999704 | $4.13 |
| 07-13 14:17 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.38 |
| 07-13 14:17 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.25 |
| 07-13 14:17 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.91 |